War redraws investment map. What happens to the real estate market?
War redraws investment map. What happens to the real estate market? Conflict raises inflation, changes capital flow, and reinforces the search for defensive assets such as real estate, logistics, and data centers Folha de São Paulo Letícia Furlan Markets Reporter Published on May 1, 2026 The escalation of the conflict between Iran and the United States is beginning to redraw the global investment map and is already changing how capital is being allocated in sectors such as real estate and infrastructure. A survey by the GRI Institute, based on a meeting with more than 100 global leaders, points out that the world has entered a new cycle marked by high inflation, weaker growth, and greater risk aversion. The trigger was the series of attacks at the end of February 2026 and the disruption of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic route for global trade. The result is a supply shock that pressures energy, increases production chain costs, and creates a typical stagflation environment — a combination of high inflation with weaker economic activity. In this scenario, investors’ reaction has been direct: migrating to protection. According to the study, 53% of participants indicate a preference for liquid and consolidated markets in the next 12 to 18 months. The United States returns to the center of global strategies, while Europe and the United Kingdom face negative growth revisions, pressured by energy dependence. It is within this rearrangement that Brazil begins to gain ground. “Brazil positions itself as one of the main beneficiaries of the global flight to safety movement,” states Gustavo Favaron, global CEO of the GRI Institute. The combination of energy independence and geopolitical distance from the conflict places the country in a more defensive and potentially more attractive position for international capital. Sectors gaining strength On a sectoral level, the movement is not uniform. The report points out that real estate maintains its defensive nature, but with a more selective approach. The residential segment appears as the main safe haven. Historically, it acts as protection against inflation because it is tied to basic demand and is less sensitive to the economic cycle. In practice, indexed contracts allow price increases to be passed on, preserving the asset's value. Another driver is logistics, fueled by the redesign of global supply chains through nearshoring . The reorganization of international trade demands more infrastructure, especially in countries with the capacity to export commodities — such as Brazil. Meanwhile, data centers emerge as a new frontier. The demand for artificial intelligence and intensive computing creates space for investments in digital infrastructure, with Brazil benefiting from a supply of renewable and abundant energy. “The country has the potential to become a relevant digital infrastructure hub,” says Favaron. Infrastructure, which was previously seen only as a defensive asset, is now taking on a more strategic role. The combination of energy transition, productive reorganization, and the advance of AI positions this segment as a growth driver — not just protection. The sector’s new risk While there are opportunities, the level of demand has increased. The conflict in the Middle East directly affects two central variables in the real estate sector: the cost of money and the cost of construction. With inflation pressured, interest rates tend to remain high for longer, making financing more expensive and reducing risk appetite. At the same time, imported inputs become more expensive, requiring revisions of feasibility calculations. “Risk analysis has become much more sensitive to geopolitical factors, which are no longer rare events,” states Favaron. In practice, this translates into three changes: greater safety margins in projects, doubled attention to capital cost, and a focus on well-located assets with long-term contracts. Despite volatility, GRI's diagnosis is that real estate tends to gain relevance in scenarios like the current one. The reason is simple: it is a physical asset with inflation pass-through capacity — something that does not always happen with financial assets. “Property preserves value. In times of crisis, investors migrate to bricks because demand for housing, logistics, and energy does not disappear,” says Favaron.