The real estate market in Pelotas is going through a moment that deserves close attention.
Recently, one piece of data drew attention: Pelotas appeared, in a report widely covered by local and national media, with the lowest average residential price per square meter among the 56 cities tracked by the FipeZAP Index. In June 2026, the average value was approximately R$ 4,478 per square meter, while the average across the surveyed cities was close to R$ 9,850.
That is a significant difference.
But given the changes that are beginning to emerge for the region, perhaps the more interesting question is not why property in Pelotas costs less.
The question we should ask is different: Is Pelotas undervalued, or are we looking at appreciation potential that the market has not yet priced in?
This reflection becomes even more important when we observe the movement surrounding oil and gas exploration in the Pelotas Basin.
However, caution is necessary.
We are talking about an activity that is still in the exploratory phase, dependent on studies, surveys, and future drilling to determine the existence and commercial viability of reserves. Therefore, we cannot treat as an established economic reality something that is still only a possibility.
On the other hand, we also cannot ignore the developments that are already taking place. Pelotas was chosen as Petrobras’ operational base for exploration activities in the Pelotas Basin, with its infrastructure and João Simões Lopes Neto International Airport being important factors in that decision.
And the real estate market often feels the first effects of an economic transformation long before it is fully in place.
The impact may begin before production
When we talk about oil, we immediately think of platforms, major investments, and royalties. But there is an extensive economic chain before and around production.
There are engineering, logistics, technology, transportation, maintenance, security, food service, hospitality, consulting, and legal, accounting, and administrative services, as well as specialized suppliers.
There are also engineers, technicians, executives, and professionals who may circulate through or remain in the region for set periods of time.
If part of this chain begins to establish itself between Pelotas and Rio Grande, an essential question for our sector will arise:
Where will these companies set up, and where will these people live?
This is the moment when the real estate outlook begins to change.
New demand may require new properties
Pelotas has a real estate market traditionally geared toward families, students, retail, and services. A new economic activity could add another consumer profile.
An executive who arrives in the city to stay for two years is not necessarily looking for the same property as a family planning to live there for decades.
An engineer staying for a few months may prefer a furnished apartment in a good location with services.
A company launching a regional operation may first look for commercial office space before establishing a permanent structure.
This could increase demand for furnished apartments, high-end compact units, corporate rentals, business suites, coworking spaces, and developments with services.
For real estate investors, this shift matters. The property is no longer analyzed only by its appreciation potential and also becomes a consideration for its ability to generate income.
Where could opportunities emerge in Pelotas?
If this economic dynamic advances, its effects will likely not be evenly distributed across the city.
Some areas deserve special attention.
The airport area naturally becomes more relevant given the movement of professionals and executives. Access to BR-116 and BR-392 also gains importance because of the connection to Rio Grande, Porto Alegre, and the state’s logistics corridors.
Planned neighborhoods and areas that combine housing, services, dining, leisure, and business spaces may benefit from an audience seeking convenience and quality of life. The surroundings of Parque Una, for example, have characteristics that align with this profile.
Downtown Pelotas may also find a new opportunity.
We have properties and buildings that can be repositioned through retrofit, creating offices, apartments, furnished units, and spaces intended for mid-term rentals.
A new economic dynamic may also be an opportunity to revitalize established areas of the city.
At the same time, land and properties located along the connecting corridors between Pelotas and Rio Grande may gain importance for logistics, storage, technical services, and business facilities.
This does not mean that all of these areas will appreciate. It means that the drivers that determine location and demand may begin to change.
Pelotas and Rio Grande: a market that must be viewed together
Another aspect I consider fundamental is not to analyze Pelotas in isolation.
Rio Grande has a port, industrial tradition, and logistics infrastructure. Pelotas concentrates services, universities, healthcare, retail, an airport, and an urban structure capable of receiving companies, executives, and professionals.
There is a clear complementarity.
If exploration advances, we may see the strengthening of a Pelotas-Rio Grande economic corridor, with impacts that go beyond the administrative boundaries of both cities.
For the real estate market, this regional perspective is especially important. The growth of one city can generate demand in the other.
A company may operate in Rio Grande, maintain its administrative structure in Pelotas, and have professionals living between the two cities.
It is a dynamic that already deserves to be studied.
What does starting at R$ 4.48 thousand per square meter mean?
This is where I return to the figure that opened this reflection.
In June 2026, Pelotas recorded an average residential price of approximately R$ 4.48 thousand per square meter in FipeZAP, compared with an average close to R$ 9.85 thousand among the cities tracked by the index.
This does not mean that local properties will simply double in value. The real estate market does not work that way.
But it does show that Pelotas is starting from a price base that is well below the average observed in the survey.
If this relatively low base is met over the next few years with increased economic activity, new companies arriving, the creation of skilled jobs, growing rental demand, and new investments, we will have a very interesting combination to watch.
And perhaps that is exactly where the opportunity lies.
Investors usually look at markets after appreciation becomes evident. The best moves, however, usually happen when it is still possible to identify a transformation before it is fully reflected in prices.
Without hype, but also without inertia
It is important to add a caveat.
I do not believe in real estate decisions based simply on the statement that “oil is coming.”
The exploration phase involves risks and uncertainties. It will still be necessary to monitor results, licensing, investments, drilling, and decisions made by the companies involved.
For that reason, buying any property while expecting automatic appreciation would be speculation, not strategy.
Location, purchase price, property quality, liquidity, rental potential, and real demand remain fundamental.
The difference is that now there is a new element to include in this analysis.
A transformation that could go far beyond oil
Pelotas’ greatest opportunity may not lie in oil itself.
It lies in what we can build from this movement.
If we can attract companies, suppliers, technology, specialized professionals, and investment, we may diversify our economy and create new demands that remain in the city regardless of the cycles of any given activity.
This requires urban planning, infrastructure, workforce training, and also business vision.
And it requires the real estate market to start thinking a few years ahead.
What types of properties are still missing in Pelotas?
What kind of housing will this new professional be looking for?
Where will the new business corridors be?
Will we need more furnished apartments? More corporate rental structures? New business centers? Logistics areas? Downtown retrofit projects? Mixed-use developments?
These are questions that may not yet have definitive answers.
But they are questions we need to start asking now.
Pelotas now appears in the statistics as one of the cities with the most affordable square meter prices among the markets tracked by FipeZAP and, at the same time, is beginning to position itself in light of a possible new economic driver for the entire South region.
For that reason, perhaps in a few years we will look at today’s price per square meter from a different perspective.
Not just as the snapshot of a city where properties were cheaper.
But as a record of a moment when Pelotas had not yet priced in its full potential.
Marisa Leitzke Buss Lawyer | Real Estate Law International Real Estate Broker NAR | Business Advisor